Prediction markets are platforms where people bet on the likelihood of future events, and the probabilities reflect the crowd's collective predictions. Participants have a financial incentive to make accurate predictions, encouraging a dynamic exchange of information. This makes prediction markets effective tools for forecasting and decision-making. Overall, prediction markets are valuable because they harness collective wisdom, incentivize accurate predictions, and provide dynamic insights into the likelihood of future events.

Manifold's markets stand apart from resources like CollegeVine or college admission subreddits with their demonstrated accuracy in predicting probabilities. The provided calibration chart evaluates how closely the actual outcomes match Manifold's predictions. Ideally, the blue dots on the chart should align with the diagonal line, indicating precise calibration. For instance, a dot representing a 70% predicted probability indicates that out of similar forecasts, 70% indeed resolved positively, verifying the prediction's accuracy. Overall, Manifold is a well calibrated platform, which means that the probability you have for admissions at a given college should be fairly accurate.

Absolutely! Prediction markets are dynamic systems that respond to new information. If you were to create one for college admissions before reaching 12th grade, it would still work well. These markets continuously update as you progress through your academic journey, considering your achievements and experiences. People participating in the market anticipate that your profile will evolve over time, and they make informed guesses based on your current accomplishments and future potential. While your age may be a factor, prediction markets are designed to effectively evaluate possibilities for individuals at different stages of their education.

Here is an example of an admissions profile for a hypothetical student:

Other users will be able to see your admissions profile and bet on it, as this is a key mechanism of the website. However, you are able to be anonymous and your name will not be shared with any colleges or universities. You are also welcome to provide as little or as much information as you like when you create your profile, although you will get more accurate probabilities the more information you give. Feel free to check out the privacy policy and terms and conditions on the bottom of this page.